The biggest warning sign of this World Cup is that favorites have not always created separation. Brazil were held by Morocco, Spain stalled against Cabo Verde and Japan found a late response against the Netherlands. The pattern is clear: underdogs are becoming better at dragging matches into low-scoring territory.
A major upset does not require the underdog to dominate for ninety minutes. It often needs only one set piece, one counterattack or one stretch of frustration from the favorite.
If a favorite cannot break the match open early, the game starts moving toward the underdog's preferred script.
